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< 15 Days:

LOCK

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15-30 Days:

LOCK

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30+ Days:

LOCK

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Market Commentary:

*** WARNING: Just like yesterday, today's commentary is all about politics and the presidential election. There's no endorsement of any candidate here.


There's no avoiding the noise today about the election, especially here, since it will have a large role to play in where pricing goes today/tomorrow. Today's pricing is likely to be flat, as there was little movement yesterday and even less this morning. I would expect though that your lock desk is on high alert, and markets have the potential to be volatile today as the media coverage of who's ahead will be everywhere.


The oversimplification as I've seen it written all over the place is that if Trump wins, mortgage rates win, and if Hillary wins, mortgage rates lose. As I said yesterday, the belief is that investors are concerned about Trump's unpredictability and possibly implementing policies that could alienate the U.S. from the rest of the world, hurting markets. Don't defend anything (or agree strongly for that matter) - I'm not sharing my opinion, I'm only telling you what the headlines read.


Why not float, and see if Trump wins and bonds win? There are two main reasons I still advise to lock ahead of election results.

The first reason is that if things go south and stocks rally on a Hillary lead/win, we may not even have time to lock before rate sheets are adversely affected. The results will come in all through the day and into the night, so by the time rate sheets come out in the AM, they could already take a bit of a hit.

The second reason is that if things do improve on a Trump lead/win, it's likely a kneejerk reaction and lenders don't usually pass along those gains so quickly. The dust would settle, life would go on, and it's likely we don't see rates or pricing that is very much improved.


The reality is that this too shall pass, and that bonds are not in a position to see yields drop with any significance as it stands today. Rates have been extremely stable, with only occasional chances to grab even the smallest of improvements in pricing over the last two weeks. With risk that we could see pricing worsen a bit through today or tomorrow, and much less chance we see improvement (not because Trump can't win, but because lock desks likely don't pass along the gains too quickly), my advice remains to lock all loans.

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About our Alerts

For our daily Lock Float Alert, Surefire works with J. 'Hammer' Helmer of OriginatorSuccess™, an industry veteran who lives and breathes the rate economy.


Hammer's view on rates is from an Originator's point of view, seeing each loan as a real person with an agnostic desire to save money or improve their rate situation - not as a potentially biased hedge fund or lending institution.

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Hammer Solutions, LLC 6 Pondview Dr Wantage, New Jersey 07461 United States (973) 200-6808



Hammer Solutions, LLC 6 Pondview Dr Wantage, New Jersey 07461 United States (973) 200-6808